KAROORO OKURUT
A literary and socio-political analyst

One of the most important events that is likely to shape things around this region for the better is the recent signing of the Common Market protocol for the East African Community in Arusha, Tanzania, by all East African heads of state.

Unfortunately, not many Ugandans have been alerted to the implications of a treaty that in effect has extended Uganda’s borders and more than quadrupled its population.

Under normal circumstances this should have caused excitement among our people, since life aboard this ship is going to get less monotonous in terms of business competitiveness, economic opportunity, capital inflows, foreign direct investment, donor finance and the long-term impacts like effects on prices of land, labour and size of government. Since few people seem to be concerned in the least, I suggest Government ought to step up effort to educate and sensitise the citizenry about all this.

The Common Market is not something new, as students and scholars of political economy will tell you. It is the fourth out of six stages of the process of economic integration. The very first stage, is something we heard of almost two decades ago – the Preferential Trade Area (PTA), which was launched in Uganda with President Yoweri Museveni as chairman, when the National Resistance Movement (NRM) was still fresh in power. This involves an agreement between nations to form an economic bloc which gives discriminatory tariff treatment for the benefit of member states who enjoy lower tariffs in trading with each other, while those outside the bloc pay higher rates.

The second stage – the Free Trade Area (FTA), is a step better; and features a complete removal of tariffs between member states.

The third stage is the Customs Union (CU) which is a union of nations that agree to eliminate customs restrictions among members and to follow a common tariff policy toward all other nations.

The fourth stage is the Common Market, which means virtually removing borders in the sense that even though each state retains its sovereignty and its borders are well protected, citizens of member states are allowed free movement in terms of labour, capital, goods and services. That means it is possible for one to set up business or settle in another member state without being subjected to the usual legal process that often makes it extremely difficult to trade, practise a profession or settle in a country other than your own.

The fifth stage is the Monetary Union that in effect integrates the economies of all member states into not only one huge economy already established by the Common Market, but also features one currency used among all member states – just like the Euro is to the European Union (never mind that Britain for one declined to give up their currency, the Pound Sterling).

The last stage – that has been talked about with more passion than prudence in some quarters – is the Political Federation. This means that all East Africa will become one huge state under one government and one leader, even though the member states will each retain their uniqueness and sovereignty to some degree, as well as their respective state governments.

The fifth and sixth stages will take a while of course; since they are not the kind of stuff that you can rush and push without due care.

I will also emphasise that the economic integration of the EAC skipped the first two stages and began at the third stage of CU. Nevertheless the current stage of the CM is a very delicate stage that carries with it both benefits and subtle costs.

Benefits in the sense that with perhaps 120 million people, the EAC stands to become a more attractive investment destination because any investor would lick his lips at the prospect of having a people so many as a market.

Moreover, with porous borders, trade will become easier amongst the member states and citizens will find more opportunities for their skills and capital. And for many of those whose marketability has been restricted by borders, the CM presents a whole new world and a brand new beginning where opportunities will be almost unlimited.

On the social scene, citizens of East Africa will have a chance to be more united and learn to live together.

Equally importantly too is the fact that as economic opportunity brings us together it will have a direct impact on the political scene. Economic integration is synonymous with political amalgamation or incorporation and the latter almost always dictates or drives the former.

The CM will for example almost guarantee that it is now impossible for any of the five East African states to go to war – even without invoking the political agreements and defence protocols. And in the same breath, it is now a given that anyone who unadvisedly attacks any of the five states will have in effect declared war on all five and risks collective wrath because all the other states will stand to suffer if any of their members is under war. Again, you do not have to invoke any of the political agreements and defence protocols in place to achieve this.

And with expanded borders for each of the states, in all likelihood everyone will be inspired to innovate, invent and create in order to get the fullest benefit of the new bigger market.

Land will increase in value, jobs will be created, trade will be boosted, innovations will be in abundance, tourism will skyrocket and opportunity will abound.

On the down side, even bad habits will be exported and imported as people integrate. Crime could therefore rise unless our governments remain vigilant and share information on a daily basis at least.

The free motion of trade also means that the competition in businesses of similar dealings will be much tighter than before.

Anybody who maintains the same lazy work habits that many of our Ugandans tend to have, will be run out of business, especially by the Kenyans who are arguably the most efficient and industrious of all the five member states.

We should understand that all these possibilities are completely contingent on whether or not we manage the process of transition very well and very tightly. Change always brings with it challenges and undue resistance from certain quarters. That means all member states should be meticulous in educating their people about the process of economic integration and the benefits and challenges incidental to it.

Our countries will also have to work together closely at all levels – between governments, between technocrats and more importantly, between peoples. Economic integration is not about governments; it is about people. And if we make the mistake of leaving the people out the dream will fall flat on its face.