The Monday High Court nullification of Kawempe North byelection result, recently won by Luyimbazi Elias Nalukoola of the National Unity Platform (NUP), a rubble rouser opposition party, piles additional miseries to an organisation many already see as facing down the political abyss. The shallowness of its leadership and lack of real policy platform, get exposed daily, and apparently there is no turning back from the high horse they climbed.

High Court Judge Bernard Namanya, ruled that the election was marred by multiple irregularities like the disenfranchisement of up to 16,640 eligible voters including then candidate, and petitioner Faridah Nambi Kigongo out of 27,000 registered. Also, that candidate Nalukoola personally campaigned on polling day at some polling stations in contravention of the electoral law.

And while the ruling might have served justice to the petitioner, Faridah Nambi, and also given the NRM some temporary reprieve, looking at the unfolding judicial appeal, and general election political terrain, it would appear all will amount to nothing more than hubris. With the legal antics, and knowing Uganda’s judiciary dragging feet, it is unlikely the appeal can be concluded before August.

As has been the case in many similar circumstances, Nalukoola, the loser in court, has appealed against the judgement, and will remain the sitting MP except if, the Court of Appeal upholds the same judgment, in which case there shall be no by-election as the duration will certainly be less than six months before the next general election. Otherwise, if the Appeals Court cancels the High Court judgment, Nalukoola will keep his seat until the term of the current parliament expires in May 2026. The lawyers would call this, litigating in vain, but from a media perspective, it has provided free political publicity for Nalukoola and NUP, leaving NRM gritting teeth. A better stratagem, rather than appeal, NUP could have dared NRM into an immediate byelection to keep in momentum for 2026.

With almost ten of its 57 MPs deserting or being threatened with expulsion in a high-handed style of a public fallout, on mostly unsubstantiated accusations, many pundits think that NRM only needed to provide more ropes to NUP to tighten the noose around its own neck. The court route, although legitimate and fair, coming on the backdrop of unexplained controversies is likely to be seen by the broader political groupings merely as a political witch hunt by NRM, unwilling to cede even the smallest ground of its dominance.

Yet with Mathias Nsamba Mpuuga (former LoP), Abed Bwanika MP Kimanya-Kabonera, and Juliet Nakabuye Kakande MP Masaka City all from the greater Masaka, getting kicked out, NUP even with the bravado being brazenly and noisily executed by an ever-frothing Muwanga Kivumbi, appears heading towards a self-prepared graveyard. Of course knowing the gullibility of voters especially in Buganda and few urban areas where on account of ethnic undertones, and economic issues, NUP won, it is still early to write off its sensational election survival in 2026. Afterall, even the much-despised Democratic Party (DP), loathed Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC), and the recently down-graded Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) can still attract some voters.

But the failure of NRM to learn from its own recent and recurring election miscalculations on itself which bolstered the rise of NUP and Robert Kyagulanyi is both uncanny and as well mystifying. NRM, at least officially, does not appear to notice the slow wave of disappointments gathering even among its own voters and supporters because of the lackluster style that matters, otherwise very serious, are being handled. Many hope that NRM doesn’t turn around in future to claim it was not forewarned. And as the old saying goes, a stitch in time saves nine. We still hope and work for the best, although some would say, it is all politics stupid.