Forty days left for the heavy-dark election curtain to draw on candidates especially, presidential ones-Robert Kyagulanyi (NUP), Nathan Nandala Mafabi (FDC) and UPDF retired Maj. Gen. Gregory Mugisha Muntu (ANT) who had billed themselves. It had been, so-far-so smooth, on the election campaign trails, that has denied the rumbling, but ineffectual opposition groups the sensational media headlines they crave. There are groups with deceitful foolishness who believe rules should be suspended for Kyagulanyi gangsters to have their own way.

In the US, UK and much of developed countries no one dare speak rudely, disobey, let alone tough the uniform of a police officer on duty. Tis week’s police tackle on the well-calculated, deliberate and violent provocations by NUP hoodlums, could foul the campaign, and cast shadows on the electoral process. Police must act firmly, and decisively but evenly. They, however, should know that the henchmen have realized their ground has slipped away, and are now on a deliberate mission to incite, provoke, spread harmful propaganda and violent confrontation to shore-up dwindling fortunes. Police should expose NUP political machinations to the public.

Kyagulanyi and NUP after their internal leadership contradictions, failure to deliver the high false expectations, open greed for money and ostentatious soft life, now know that Buganda, their base, is fast slipping away. As a tribal chauvinistic group, the fallout with Mathias Mpuuga who enjoys good relations with Mengo cultural leadership, and the catholic church in Buganda seem to have alienated Kyagulanyi. Equally, his apparent disdain for the so-called educated and enlightened within NUP, also appears to be rubbing him wrong in this election.

It is evident that NUP has spectacularly failed to craft a credible manifesto or election message that would help them expand their current political reach which they are finding difficulties to keep grip on, actually losing out. This is partly the reason they have chosen the whirlwind style of roadside shows and rowdy processions that conflicts with the electoral guidelines they signed. They are on an overdrive with AI generated campaign rally crowds, scary manipulated photoshops, images and insults they post on various social media platforms. So, these political strawmen ought to be left to drown by themselves, and the police should be watching them from a safe distance. Otherwise, inflexible policing of NUP electioneering activities could generate more ugly confrontations, and be the tipping points they are desperately yearning for so much.

Traveling, while monitoring the ongoing election campaign trails of the different so-called presidential candidates, one comes to the unmistakable conclusion that NRM candidate, Yoweri Tibuhaburwa Kaguta Museveni is atop, destined to win decisively on 15 January 2026. With forty days left, Museveni had personally campaigned in West Nile, Acholi, Lango, Teso, Karamoja, Elgon, Bukedi, Busoga. Kigezi, Ankole, Rwenzori, Tooro, and now entering Bunyoro, much of which are his, and NRM strongholds, it’s unlikely he is stoppable.

The NRM, currently holding the stables in parliament and local governments, is going to stretch its margin as it already has thirteen MPs elected unopposed out of the 419-seater parliament. All the clatter on the campaigns is actually background noise from potentially bad-losers but whom Ugandans are familiar with. As the campaigns enter the final stretch, and Museveni’s well-attended, the various NRM teams must close ranks and loopholes.

In particular NRM cadres must now move out and focus more on first-time voters, young and rising affluent people, and non-traditional supporters to persuade them as to why, of all the presidential pretenders, Museveni still holds the key to Uganda’s steady transformation journey. NRM should banish the pettiness among its leaders, and bicker over campaign facilitations, especially money. And with the village, door-door, and person-to-person engagements, NRM must conduct civic and voter education so that all potential NRM supporters actually come out massively on polling day 15 January 2026.